Goldman Sachs raises recession odds to 30% amid inflation concerns
pre-market1 source ↓written by the desknot a recommendation
- due to rising
- 30%
- per barrel
- $105
- by December 2026
- 3.1%
- estimate
- 2.1%
- forecast raised
- 0.2 percentage points
Goldman Sachs has increased its recession probability to 30% due to rising inflation and a lower GDP growth outlook. The bank now expects Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in March, impacting inflation forecasts, which are raised to 3.1% by December 2026. Despite these changes, a recession remains a non-base case scenario.
• Revised GDP growth estimate down to 2.1%
• Inflation forecast raised by 0.2 percentage points
Traders should monitor oil price movements and inflation trends closely as they may influence market sentiment.
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.