Hormuz oil flows face prolonged recovery
Rystad Energy said Hormuz oil flows are unlikely to return to pre-war levels in 2027 despite a possible limited US-Iran agreement. ONGC showed short build-up, while Reliance recorded long build-up and a 9.3% five-session gain.
pre-market1 source ↓machine-written, see hownot a recommendation
- ONGC close
- ₹232.17
- On the day
- -1.13%
- Futures OI, short build-up
- +2.8%
- Put-call ratio
- 0.59
- Max pain
- ₹230.00
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to return to pre-war levels in 2027, even if the United States and Iran reach a limited agreement by mid-year, according to Rystad Energy. The consultancy said any recovery would be gradual because fundamental disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions, Tehran-backed armed groups, maritime security and Israel’s security interests remain unresolved. ⚓
The assessment keeps a structural risk premium around one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. A limited agreement could support a gradual normalisation of flows, but Rystad said a comprehensive settlement was unlikely within the coming year. That leaves energy markets exposed to continued uncertainty around shipping security, supply availability and the pace of any sanctions relief. ⚡
What the market data shows:
• ONGC closed at ₹232.17 on 03 Nov 2026, down 1.1% on the day. Its futures open interest rose 2.8%, indicating a short build-up, while the futures premium was 0.08%. OI Charts data showed a put-call ratio of 0.59 and max pain at ₹230 for the 23 Nov expiry.
• The largest call open interest in ONGC was at ₹240, while the largest put open interest was at ₹220. These levels frame the immediate derivatives range, with the ₹240 call wall representing overhead positioning and ₹220 marking the main put-interest area.
• Reliance closed at ₹1,308, up 0.6%, after rising 9.3% over five sessions and 10.2% over 20 sessions. Its futures open interest increased 1.8%, a long build-up, with a 0.07% premium. OI Charts data showed a put-call ratio of 0.84 and max pain at ₹1,250 for the same expiry.
For the energy sector, the next market-moving signals are evidence of changes in maritime traffic, the timing and scope of any US-Iran understanding, and developments on sanctions. Traders will also watch whether ONGC holds above ₹220 and whether Reliance sustains its recent momentum below the ₹1,300 call open-interest level. The report follows continuing uncertainty around Middle East security rather than confirming a new agreement.
Source: OilPrice.com, 03 Nov 2026
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.