Goldman Sachs sees private banks nearing earnings-led re-rating
after close1 source ↓machine-written, see hownot a recommendation
- AXISBANK close
- ₹1,290
- On the day
- +0.16%
- Futures OI, long build-up
- +0.3%
- Put-call ratio
- 0.71
- Max pain
- ₹1,250
India’s private banking sector could be nearing a turning point after several years of weak stock performance, according to Sumeet Kariwala, India Banking Analyst at Goldman Sachs. The analyst said improving earnings, stronger revenue growth and better operating leverage could support a re-rating over the next one to two years. Goldman Sachs has started raising earnings estimates for private banks after years of downgrades, with the interest rate cycle expected to become more supportive for profitability 💼.
OI Charts data from 16 Oct 2026 showed a constructive near-term trend across three large private banks. Axis Bank closed at ₹1,290, up 0.2% over one session, 2.5% over five sessions and 4.0% over 20 sessions. HDFC Bank closed at ₹728.85, with gains of 0.3%, 3.0% and 2.2% over the same periods. ICICI Bank closed at ₹1,397, up 0.6% on the day, 3.1% over five sessions and 3.7% over 20 sessions.
The derivatives positioning also points to improving participation, although the signals are not uniform. Axis Bank futures open interest rose 0.3% in a long build-up, while HDFC Bank futures open interest increased 0.9%, also indicating a long build-up. ICICI Bank futures open interest fell 1.3% as prices rose, indicating short covering. Their put-call ratios stood at 0.71, 0.57 and 0.68 respectively. The figures suggest that traders are adding or reducing bearish positions as the sector’s earnings outlook improves 📈.
For the 27 Oct 2026 expiry, the largest open-interest levels were ₹1,260 for both calls and puts in Axis Bank, ₹750 for calls and ₹720 for puts in HDFC Bank, and ₹1,400 for both calls and puts in ICICI Bank. Max pain stood at ₹1,250, ₹720 and ₹1,350 respectively. These levels, along with upcoming earnings commentary and changes in lending growth, margins and credit costs, will determine whether the recent gains develop into a broader sector re-rating. The next one to two years remain the timeframe highlighted by Goldman Sachs, while the immediate market test is whether earnings upgrades continue and positioning holds ⚙️.
Source: CNBC TV18, 19 Oct 2026
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.