Brent heads for largest weekly decline since 2020
Brent crude was on track for its largest weekly decline since April 2020 after falling more than $20 as de-escalation hopes reduced conflict premium. BPCL, IOC and Reliance rose, with derivatives showing short covering in the refiners and long build-up in Reliance.
pre-market1 source ↓machine-written, see hownot a recommendation
- BPCL close
- ₹319.90
- On the day
- +0.88%
- Futures OI, short covering
- -1.7%
- Put-call ratio
- 0.94
- Max pain
- ₹305.00
Brent crude futures were on track for their sharpest weekly decline since April 2020 on 07 Nov 2026, with the fall exceeding $20 as hopes of a possible US-Iran de-escalation reduced part of the conflict premium. UBS energy expert Dominic Ellis estimated that crude near $95 still carried $10 to $15 risk premium, while cautioning that markets had again priced in de-escalation ahead of firm evidence. ⚡
Ellis said the conflict had removed nearly 700 million barrels from global inventories and warned that a prolonged confrontation could reduce stocks by another 40 million to 50 million barrels a month. The sharp reversal followed an earlier period in which missile launches targeting Saudi Arabia had lifted concerns over regional supply security and pushed Brent higher. The competing forces are clear for the energy sector: a lower risk premium can ease feedstock costs for refiners, while continued supply disruption can quickly restore volatility.
OI Charts data showed Indian energy names rising on 06 Nov 2026 despite the softer crude backdrop. BPCL closed at ₹319.90, up 0.9% on the day and 12.3% over five sessions; its futures open interest fell 1.7%, indicating short covering. IOC gained 1.2% to ₹146.25 and advanced 12.4% over five sessions, with futures open interest down 2.0%, also reflecting short covering. Reliance rose 0.5% to ₹1,320 and gained 13.3% over five sessions, while futures open interest increased 1.5%, indicating long build-up. 📈
For the November 23 expiry, BPCL’s largest call open interest was at ₹320 and largest put open interest at ₹315, with max pain at ₹305. IOC’s main call wall was at ₹150, its largest put open interest was at ₹125 and max pain stood at ₹140. Reliance showed the largest call open interest at ₹1,300, largest put open interest at ₹1,200 and max pain at ₹1,250. These levels frame the immediate derivatives positioning as markets assess whether the oil decline reflects durable de-escalation or only a temporary repricing of geopolitical risk.
The next catalyst is evidence of actual US-Iran negotiations and fresh updates on regional supply flows. A reversal in missile activity, inventory data or official diplomatic concessions could determine whether the premium continues to unwind. 🛢️
Source: TokenPost, 07 Nov 2026
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.