Oil rally meets overbought risk as elections approach
Brent tested September highs and WTI moved above $100 as US crude inventories fell 8.6 million barrels. OI Charts data showed Reliance futures short build-up, with ₹1,160 support and ₹1,250 resistance for the 27 Oct expiry.
pre-market1 source ↓machine-written, see hownot a recommendation
- RELIANCE close
- ₹1,211
- On the day
- -0.31%
- Futures OI, short build-up
- +1.9%
- Put-call ratio
- 0.61
- Max pain
- ₹1,210
Brent crude was testing its September highs while WTI moved back above the psychological $100 level, restoring upside momentum across the oil market. The energy sector ETF XLE also reclaimed an 18-year resistance zone, but daily momentum in Brent, WTI and XLE was approaching overbought territory. The setup leaves the market vulnerable to a pullback even as geopolitical tensions keep supply concerns elevated ⚡.
The fundamental picture remains mixed. US commercial crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week ended 9 Oct 2026, leaving stocks about 3% below their five-year average. That drawdown supports prices by tightening near-term availability. However, the IEA lowered its 2026 oil-demand forecast, citing high prices, restricted supply and a deteriorating economic outlook. The conflict between immediate supply risks and softer demand expectations is keeping volatility high across the energy complex 🛢️.
For Indian equity traders, OI Charts data showed Reliance closing at ₹1,211 on 16 Oct 2026, down 0.31% for the session. The stock remained 3.5% higher over five sessions but was down 2.6% over 20 sessions, well below its 52-week high of ₹1,612 and above its 52-week low of ₹1,152. Its futures open interest rose 1.9% to 172.48 million shares, a short build-up, while the futures contract traded at a 0.05% discount to the underlying. That positioning indicates increased bearish exposure despite the recent short-term recovery 📉.
The options structure placed max pain at ₹1,210, close to the latest price. The largest call open interest was at ₹1,250, creating an overhead positioning level, while the largest put open interest was at ₹1,160. The put-call ratio stood at 0.61 for the 27 Oct 2026 expiry, which falls two days after Israel’s national elections. Traders will therefore be watching the ₹1,160–₹1,250 range, changes in futures open interest and the market response to oil prices around the election date. The US midterm elections on 3 Nov 2026 are the next major geopolitical and policy risk.
Source: FOREX.com, 18 Oct 2026
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.