Kotak lifts FY27 oil forecast, upstream stocks in focus
Kotak Institutional Equities raised its FY27 crude oil assumption to $100 per barrel from $90, keeping upstream producers in focus. On 29 Oct, Oil India showed short covering while Oil and Natural Gas Corporation showed long build-up in futures.
after close2 sources ↓machine-written, see hownot a recommendation
- OIL close
- ₹454.50
- On the day
- +1.56%
- Futures OI, short covering
- -0.3%
- Put-call ratio
- 0.84
- Max pain
- ₹450.00
Kotak Institutional Equities raised its FY27 crude oil price assumption to $100 per barrel from $90, while retaining its FY28 and long-term forecast at $75. Dated Brent averaged $126 per barrel in October and $104 per barrel so far in FY27, according to the brokerage. West Asia tensions, renewed attacks on energy infrastructure, tanker disruptions and multi-year-high crude and product freight rates are keeping supply risks active. ⚡
The higher crude assumption supports the earnings backdrop for India’s upstream producers because stronger realisations can improve operating cash flow, subject to production levels, royalties, taxes and policy intervention. Kotak also said the policy environment improved after amendments to the Oilfields Regulation and Development Act, royalty reforms and the government’s Samudra Manthan initiative.
On 29 Oct 2026, Oil India closed at ₹454.50, up 1.6%, on volume of 982,063 shares, according to OI Charts data. It remained down 4.3% over 20 sessions and traded within a 52-week range of ₹395.60 to ₹531.00. Its futures showed short covering, with open interest down 0.2% to 9,917,600 shares and a futures premium of -0.76%. The November expiry had a put-call ratio of 0.84, max pain at ₹450 and the largest call open interest at ₹450; the largest put open interest was at ₹480.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation closed at ₹225.79, up 0.4%, on volume of 4,473,022 shares. It was down 4.3% over 20 sessions and remained close to its 52-week low of ₹218.53, recorded on 8 Oct 2026. Its futures showed long build-up, with open interest up 0.6% to 62,804,250 shares and a premium of 0.72%. The November expiry’s put-call ratio was 0.73, with max pain and the largest call open interest at ₹230 and the largest put open interest at ₹220.
Traders will watch Brent, tanker rates, developments around regional supply routes, policy implementation and the companies’ next earnings disclosures. The ₹450 and ₹230 option concentrations mark the key positioning zones for the two stocks, while crude realisations will determine whether the revised FY27 assumption translates into sustained sector support.
Source: Livemint, 29 Oct 2026; news.google.com, 29 Oct 2026
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.